Twenty First century Projections of Extreme Precipitations in the Plata basin

Autores
Barros, Vicente Ricardo; Garavaglia, Christian; Doyle, Moira Evelina
Año de publicación
2013
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Distributions of monthly rainfall averaged spatially over three regions of the La Plata Basin (LPB) were projected for 2011-2040 and 2071-2100 using outputs of four regional climate models (RCMs) nested in three different general circulation models, run with the SRES A1B emission scenario. Tuning of simulations with observations was done at the control period 1981?1990. During the past 50 years, in part of LPB, there was a positive trend in annual precipitation. Two of the models indicate the maintenance of this trend over the northeast of Argentina and south of Brazil, while over the southernmost region of LPB, all models show increasing precipitation throughout the twenty-first century. Trends are less ambiguous for extreme precipitation, especially in the southernmost part of LPB, where huge and long-lasting floods take place over plains with small drainage. Months with extreme precipitation in LPB present a pronounced annual cycle with higher frequency from October to April. According to the RCM projections, this pattern would persist during the twenty-first century. Although, other factors cannot be discarded, the projected trends towards higher extreme monthly precipitation seem to be caused by an increase in the moisture convergence in the lower atmosphere over the east of LPB
Fil: Barros, Vicente Ricardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinacion Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
Fil: Garavaglia, Christian. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinacion Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; Argentina
Fil: Doyle, Moira Evelina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinacion Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
Materia
Climate Change
La Plata Basin
Floods
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/4482
Acceder
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network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Twenty First century Projections of Extreme Precipitations in the Plata basinBarros, Vicente RicardoGaravaglia, ChristianDoyle, Moira EvelinaClimate ChangeLa Plata BasinFloodshttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Distributions of monthly rainfall averaged spatially over three regions of the La Plata Basin (LPB) were projected for 2011-2040 and 2071-2100 using outputs of four regional climate models (RCMs) nested in three different general circulation models, run with the SRES A1B emission scenario. Tuning of simulations with observations was done at the control period 1981?1990. During the past 50 years, in part of LPB, there was a positive trend in annual precipitation. Two of the models indicate the maintenance of this trend over the northeast of Argentina and south of Brazil, while over the southernmost region of LPB, all models show increasing precipitation throughout the twenty-first century. Trends are less ambiguous for extreme precipitation, especially in the southernmost part of LPB, where huge and long-lasting floods take place over plains with small drainage. Months with extreme precipitation in LPB present a pronounced annual cycle with higher frequency from October to April. According to the RCM projections, this pattern would persist during the twenty-first century. Although, other factors cannot be discarded, the projected trends towards higher extreme monthly precipitation seem to be caused by an increase in the moisture convergence in the lower atmosphere over the east of LPBFil: Barros, Vicente Ricardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinacion Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; ArgentinaFil: Garavaglia, Christian. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinacion Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; ArgentinaFil: Doyle, Moira Evelina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinacion Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; ArgentinaTaylor & Francis2013-09info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/4482Barros, Vicente Ricardo; Garavaglia, Christian; Doyle, Moira Evelina; Twenty First century Projections of Extreme Precipitations in the Plata basin; Taylor & Francis; International Journal of River Basin Management; 11; 4; 9-2013; 373-3871571-5124enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/15715124.2013.819358info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/DOI:10.1080/15715124.2013.819358info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/1571-5124info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T10:03:05Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/4482instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 10:03:05.532CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Twenty First century Projections of Extreme Precipitations in the Plata basin
title Twenty First century Projections of Extreme Precipitations in the Plata basin
spellingShingle Twenty First century Projections of Extreme Precipitations in the Plata basin
Barros, Vicente Ricardo
Climate Change
La Plata Basin
Floods
title_short Twenty First century Projections of Extreme Precipitations in the Plata basin
title_full Twenty First century Projections of Extreme Precipitations in the Plata basin
title_fullStr Twenty First century Projections of Extreme Precipitations in the Plata basin
title_full_unstemmed Twenty First century Projections of Extreme Precipitations in the Plata basin
title_sort Twenty First century Projections of Extreme Precipitations in the Plata basin
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Barros, Vicente Ricardo
Garavaglia, Christian
Doyle, Moira Evelina
author Barros, Vicente Ricardo
author_facet Barros, Vicente Ricardo
Garavaglia, Christian
Doyle, Moira Evelina
author_role author
author2 Garavaglia, Christian
Doyle, Moira Evelina
author2_role author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Climate Change
La Plata Basin
Floods
topic Climate Change
La Plata Basin
Floods
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Distributions of monthly rainfall averaged spatially over three regions of the La Plata Basin (LPB) were projected for 2011-2040 and 2071-2100 using outputs of four regional climate models (RCMs) nested in three different general circulation models, run with the SRES A1B emission scenario. Tuning of simulations with observations was done at the control period 1981?1990. During the past 50 years, in part of LPB, there was a positive trend in annual precipitation. Two of the models indicate the maintenance of this trend over the northeast of Argentina and south of Brazil, while over the southernmost region of LPB, all models show increasing precipitation throughout the twenty-first century. Trends are less ambiguous for extreme precipitation, especially in the southernmost part of LPB, where huge and long-lasting floods take place over plains with small drainage. Months with extreme precipitation in LPB present a pronounced annual cycle with higher frequency from October to April. According to the RCM projections, this pattern would persist during the twenty-first century. Although, other factors cannot be discarded, the projected trends towards higher extreme monthly precipitation seem to be caused by an increase in the moisture convergence in the lower atmosphere over the east of LPB
Fil: Barros, Vicente Ricardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinacion Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
Fil: Garavaglia, Christian. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinacion Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; Argentina
Fil: Doyle, Moira Evelina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinacion Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
description Distributions of monthly rainfall averaged spatially over three regions of the La Plata Basin (LPB) were projected for 2011-2040 and 2071-2100 using outputs of four regional climate models (RCMs) nested in three different general circulation models, run with the SRES A1B emission scenario. Tuning of simulations with observations was done at the control period 1981?1990. During the past 50 years, in part of LPB, there was a positive trend in annual precipitation. Two of the models indicate the maintenance of this trend over the northeast of Argentina and south of Brazil, while over the southernmost region of LPB, all models show increasing precipitation throughout the twenty-first century. Trends are less ambiguous for extreme precipitation, especially in the southernmost part of LPB, where huge and long-lasting floods take place over plains with small drainage. Months with extreme precipitation in LPB present a pronounced annual cycle with higher frequency from October to April. According to the RCM projections, this pattern would persist during the twenty-first century. Although, other factors cannot be discarded, the projected trends towards higher extreme monthly precipitation seem to be caused by an increase in the moisture convergence in the lower atmosphere over the east of LPB
publishDate 2013
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2013-09
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/4482
Barros, Vicente Ricardo; Garavaglia, Christian; Doyle, Moira Evelina; Twenty First century Projections of Extreme Precipitations in the Plata basin; Taylor & Francis; International Journal of River Basin Management; 11; 4; 9-2013; 373-387
1571-5124
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/4482
identifier_str_mv Barros, Vicente Ricardo; Garavaglia, Christian; Doyle, Moira Evelina; Twenty First century Projections of Extreme Precipitations in the Plata basin; Taylor & Francis; International Journal of River Basin Management; 11; 4; 9-2013; 373-387
1571-5124
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/15715124.2013.819358
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/DOI:10.1080/15715124.2013.819358
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/1571-5124
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Taylor & Francis
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Taylor & Francis
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.070432

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