La Plata basin precipitation variability in spring: role of remote SST forcing as simulated by GCM experiments

Autores
Cherchi, Annalisa; Carril, Andrea Fabiana; Menendez, Claudio Guillermo; Zamboni, Laura
Año de publicación
2014
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
An ensemble of nine experiments with the same interannually varying sea sur face temperature (SST), as boundary forcing, and different initial conditions is used to investigate the role of tropical oceans in modulating precipitation variability in the region of La Plata Basin (LPB). The results from the ensemble are compared with a 20th-century experiment performed with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, sharing the same atmospheric component. A rotated empirical orthogonal functions analysis of South America precipitation shows that the dominant mode of variability in spring is realistically captured in both experiments. Its principal component (RPC1) correlated with global sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric fields identifies the pattern related to El Nin?o Southern Oscillation and its large-scale teleconnections. Overall the pattern is well simulated in the tropical southern Pacific Ocean, mainly in the ensemble, but it is absent or too weak in other oceanic areas. The coupled model experiment shows a more realistic correlation in the subtropical South Atlantic where air-sea interactions contribute to the relationship between LPB precipitation and SST. The correspondence between model and data is much improved when the composite analysis of SST and atmospheric fields is done over the ensemble members having an RPC1 in agreement with the observations: the improvement relies on avoiding climate noise by averaging only over members that are statistically similar. Furthermore, the result suggests the presence of a high level of uncertainty due to internal atmospheric variability. The analysis of some individual years selected from the model and data RPC1 comparison reveals interesting differences among rainy springs in LPB. For example, 1982, which corresponds to a strong El Nin?o year, represents a clean case with a distinct wave train propagating from the central Pacific and merging with another one from the eastern tropical south Indian Ocean. The year 2003 is an example of a rainy spring in LPB not directly driven by remote SST forcing. In this case the internal variability has a dominant role, as the model is not able to reproduce the correct local precipitation pattern.
Fil: Cherchi, Annalisa. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia. Centro Euromediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici; Italia
Fil: Carril, Andrea Fabiana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinacion Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios de Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina
Fil: Menendez, Claudio Guillermo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinacion Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios de Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina
Fil: Zamboni, Laura. Argonne National Laboratory. Mathematics and Computer Science Division; Estados Unidos
Materia
Precipitation
La Plata Basin
Remote Forcings
Modelling
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/4466
Acceder
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oai_identifier_str oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/4466
network_acronym_str CONICETDig
repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling La Plata basin precipitation variability in spring: role of remote SST forcing as simulated by GCM experimentsCherchi, AnnalisaCarril, Andrea FabianaMenendez, Claudio GuillermoZamboni, LauraPrecipitationLa Plata BasinRemote ForcingsModellinghttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1An ensemble of nine experiments with the same interannually varying sea sur face temperature (SST), as boundary forcing, and different initial conditions is used to investigate the role of tropical oceans in modulating precipitation variability in the region of La Plata Basin (LPB). The results from the ensemble are compared with a 20th-century experiment performed with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, sharing the same atmospheric component. A rotated empirical orthogonal functions analysis of South America precipitation shows that the dominant mode of variability in spring is realistically captured in both experiments. Its principal component (RPC1) correlated with global sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric fields identifies the pattern related to El Nin?o Southern Oscillation and its large-scale teleconnections. Overall the pattern is well simulated in the tropical southern Pacific Ocean, mainly in the ensemble, but it is absent or too weak in other oceanic areas. The coupled model experiment shows a more realistic correlation in the subtropical South Atlantic where air-sea interactions contribute to the relationship between LPB precipitation and SST. The correspondence between model and data is much improved when the composite analysis of SST and atmospheric fields is done over the ensemble members having an RPC1 in agreement with the observations: the improvement relies on avoiding climate noise by averaging only over members that are statistically similar. Furthermore, the result suggests the presence of a high level of uncertainty due to internal atmospheric variability. The analysis of some individual years selected from the model and data RPC1 comparison reveals interesting differences among rainy springs in LPB. For example, 1982, which corresponds to a strong El Nin?o year, represents a clean case with a distinct wave train propagating from the central Pacific and merging with another one from the eastern tropical south Indian Ocean. The year 2003 is an example of a rainy spring in LPB not directly driven by remote SST forcing. In this case the internal variability has a dominant role, as the model is not able to reproduce the correct local precipitation pattern.Fil: Cherchi, Annalisa. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia. Centro Euromediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici; ItaliaFil: Carril, Andrea Fabiana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinacion Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios de Clima y sus Impactos; ArgentinaFil: Menendez, Claudio Guillermo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinacion Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios de Clima y sus Impactos; ArgentinaFil: Zamboni, Laura. Argonne National Laboratory. Mathematics and Computer Science Division; Estados UnidosSpringer2014-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/4466Cherchi, Annalisa; Carril, Andrea Fabiana; Menendez, Claudio Guillermo; Zamboni, Laura; La Plata basin precipitation variability in spring: role of remote SST forcing as simulated by GCM experiments; Springer; Climate Dynamics; 42; 1-2; 1-2014; 219-2360930-7575enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-013-1768-yinfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/0930-7575info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/hdl/http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1768-yinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-03T09:53:14Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/4466instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-03 09:53:14.535CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv La Plata basin precipitation variability in spring: role of remote SST forcing as simulated by GCM experiments
title La Plata basin precipitation variability in spring: role of remote SST forcing as simulated by GCM experiments
spellingShingle La Plata basin precipitation variability in spring: role of remote SST forcing as simulated by GCM experiments
Cherchi, Annalisa
Precipitation
La Plata Basin
Remote Forcings
Modelling
title_short La Plata basin precipitation variability in spring: role of remote SST forcing as simulated by GCM experiments
title_full La Plata basin precipitation variability in spring: role of remote SST forcing as simulated by GCM experiments
title_fullStr La Plata basin precipitation variability in spring: role of remote SST forcing as simulated by GCM experiments
title_full_unstemmed La Plata basin precipitation variability in spring: role of remote SST forcing as simulated by GCM experiments
title_sort La Plata basin precipitation variability in spring: role of remote SST forcing as simulated by GCM experiments
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Cherchi, Annalisa
Carril, Andrea Fabiana
Menendez, Claudio Guillermo
Zamboni, Laura
author Cherchi, Annalisa
author_facet Cherchi, Annalisa
Carril, Andrea Fabiana
Menendez, Claudio Guillermo
Zamboni, Laura
author_role author
author2 Carril, Andrea Fabiana
Menendez, Claudio Guillermo
Zamboni, Laura
author2_role author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Precipitation
La Plata Basin
Remote Forcings
Modelling
topic Precipitation
La Plata Basin
Remote Forcings
Modelling
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv An ensemble of nine experiments with the same interannually varying sea sur face temperature (SST), as boundary forcing, and different initial conditions is used to investigate the role of tropical oceans in modulating precipitation variability in the region of La Plata Basin (LPB). The results from the ensemble are compared with a 20th-century experiment performed with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, sharing the same atmospheric component. A rotated empirical orthogonal functions analysis of South America precipitation shows that the dominant mode of variability in spring is realistically captured in both experiments. Its principal component (RPC1) correlated with global sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric fields identifies the pattern related to El Nin?o Southern Oscillation and its large-scale teleconnections. Overall the pattern is well simulated in the tropical southern Pacific Ocean, mainly in the ensemble, but it is absent or too weak in other oceanic areas. The coupled model experiment shows a more realistic correlation in the subtropical South Atlantic where air-sea interactions contribute to the relationship between LPB precipitation and SST. The correspondence between model and data is much improved when the composite analysis of SST and atmospheric fields is done over the ensemble members having an RPC1 in agreement with the observations: the improvement relies on avoiding climate noise by averaging only over members that are statistically similar. Furthermore, the result suggests the presence of a high level of uncertainty due to internal atmospheric variability. The analysis of some individual years selected from the model and data RPC1 comparison reveals interesting differences among rainy springs in LPB. For example, 1982, which corresponds to a strong El Nin?o year, represents a clean case with a distinct wave train propagating from the central Pacific and merging with another one from the eastern tropical south Indian Ocean. The year 2003 is an example of a rainy spring in LPB not directly driven by remote SST forcing. In this case the internal variability has a dominant role, as the model is not able to reproduce the correct local precipitation pattern.
Fil: Cherchi, Annalisa. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia. Centro Euromediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici; Italia
Fil: Carril, Andrea Fabiana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinacion Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios de Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina
Fil: Menendez, Claudio Guillermo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinacion Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios de Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina
Fil: Zamboni, Laura. Argonne National Laboratory. Mathematics and Computer Science Division; Estados Unidos
description An ensemble of nine experiments with the same interannually varying sea sur face temperature (SST), as boundary forcing, and different initial conditions is used to investigate the role of tropical oceans in modulating precipitation variability in the region of La Plata Basin (LPB). The results from the ensemble are compared with a 20th-century experiment performed with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, sharing the same atmospheric component. A rotated empirical orthogonal functions analysis of South America precipitation shows that the dominant mode of variability in spring is realistically captured in both experiments. Its principal component (RPC1) correlated with global sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric fields identifies the pattern related to El Nin?o Southern Oscillation and its large-scale teleconnections. Overall the pattern is well simulated in the tropical southern Pacific Ocean, mainly in the ensemble, but it is absent or too weak in other oceanic areas. The coupled model experiment shows a more realistic correlation in the subtropical South Atlantic where air-sea interactions contribute to the relationship between LPB precipitation and SST. The correspondence between model and data is much improved when the composite analysis of SST and atmospheric fields is done over the ensemble members having an RPC1 in agreement with the observations: the improvement relies on avoiding climate noise by averaging only over members that are statistically similar. Furthermore, the result suggests the presence of a high level of uncertainty due to internal atmospheric variability. The analysis of some individual years selected from the model and data RPC1 comparison reveals interesting differences among rainy springs in LPB. For example, 1982, which corresponds to a strong El Nin?o year, represents a clean case with a distinct wave train propagating from the central Pacific and merging with another one from the eastern tropical south Indian Ocean. The year 2003 is an example of a rainy spring in LPB not directly driven by remote SST forcing. In this case the internal variability has a dominant role, as the model is not able to reproduce the correct local precipitation pattern.
publishDate 2014
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2014-01
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/4466
Cherchi, Annalisa; Carril, Andrea Fabiana; Menendez, Claudio Guillermo; Zamboni, Laura; La Plata basin precipitation variability in spring: role of remote SST forcing as simulated by GCM experiments; Springer; Climate Dynamics; 42; 1-2; 1-2014; 219-236
0930-7575
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/4466
identifier_str_mv Cherchi, Annalisa; Carril, Andrea Fabiana; Menendez, Claudio Guillermo; Zamboni, Laura; La Plata basin precipitation variability in spring: role of remote SST forcing as simulated by GCM experiments; Springer; Climate Dynamics; 42; 1-2; 1-2014; 219-236
0930-7575
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-013-1768-y
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/0930-7575
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/hdl/http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1768-y
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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