Uncertainty of modelled urban peak O3 concentrations and its sensitivity to input data perturbations based on the Monte Carlo analysis

Authors
Pineda Rojas, Andrea Laura; Venegas, Laura Esperanza; Mazzeo, Nicolas Antonio
Publication Year
2016
Language
English
Format
article
Status
Published version
Description
A simple urban air quality model [MODelo de Dispersion Atmosf erica Ubana e Generic Reaction Set (DAUMOD-GRS)] was recently developed. One-hour peak O3 concentrations in the Metropolitan Area of Buenos Aires (MABA) during the summer estimated with the DAUMOD-GRS model have shown values lower than 20 ppb (the regional background concentration) in the urban area and levels greater than 40 ppb in its surroundings. Due to the lack of measurements outside the MABA, these relatively high ozone modelled concentrations constitute the only estimate for the area. In this work, a methodology based on the Monte Carlo analysis is implemented to evaluate the uncertainty in these modelled concentrations associated to possible errors of the model input data. Results show that the larger 1-h peak O3 levels in the MABA during the summer present larger uncertainties (up to 47 ppb). On the other hand, multiple linear regression analysis is applied at selected receptors in order to identify the variables explaining most of the obtained variance. Although their relative contributions vary spatially, the uncertainty of the regional background O3 concentration dominates at all the analysed receptors (34.4 e97.6%), indicating that their estimations could be improved to enhance the ability of the model to simulate peak O3 concentrations in the MABA.
Fil: Pineda Rojas, Andrea Laura. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera; Argentina
Fil: Venegas, Laura Esperanza. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional. Facultad Regional Avellaneda; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Mazzeo, Nicolas Antonio. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional. Facultad Regional Avellaneda; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Subject
AIR QUALITY
MODEL UNCERTAINTY
SENSITIVITY
OZONE
MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS
Meteorología y Ciencias Atmosféricas
Ciencias de la Tierra y relacionadas con el Medio Ambiente
CIENCIAS NATURALES Y EXACTAS
Access level
Restricted access
License
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
Repository
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institution
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identifier
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/17728