Regional climate modelling in CLARIS‐LPB: a concerted approach towards twentyfirst century projections of regional temperature and precipitation over South America

Authors
Sanchez, E.; Solman, Silvina Alicia; Remedio, A. R. C.; Berbery, Ernesto Hugo; Samuelsson, P.; Da Rocha, R.; Mourão, C.; Li, L.; Marengo, J.; de Castro, M.; Jacob, D.
Publication Year
2015
Language
English
Format
article
Status
Published version
Description
The results of an ensemble of regional cli- mate model (RCM) simulations over South America are presented. This is the first coordinated exercise of regional climate modelling studies over the continent, as part of the CLARIS-LPB EU FP7 project. The results of different future periods, with the main focus on (2071? 2100) is shown, when forced by several global climate models, all using the A1B greenhouse gases emissions scenario. The analysis is focused on the mean climate conditions for both temperature and precipitation. The common climate change signals show an overall increase of temperature for all the seasons and regions, gener- ally larger for the austral winter season. Future climate shows a precipitation decrease over the tropical region, and an increase over the subtropical areas. These cli- mate change signals arise independently of the driving global model and the RCM. The internal variability of the driving global models introduces a very small level of uncertainty, compared with that due to the choice of the driving model and the RCM. Moreover, the level of uncertainty is larger for longer horizon projections for both temperature and precipitation. The uncertainty in the temperature changes is larger for the subtropical than for the tropical ones. The current analysis allows identi- fication of the common climate change signals and their associated uncertainties for several subregions within the South American continent.
Fil: Sanchez, E.. Universidad de Castilla La Mancha. Facultad de Ciencias Ambientales y Bioquímica; España
Fil: Solman, Silvina Alicia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinacion Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina
Fil: Remedio, A. R. C.. Climate Service Center 2.0; Alemania
Fil: Berbery, Ernesto Hugo. University of Maryland. Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center; Estados Unidos
Fil: Samuelsson, P.. Rossby Centre, Meteorological And Hydrological Institute Of Sweden; Suecia
Fil: Da Rocha, R.. Universidade de São Paulo. Departamento de Ciencias Atmosféricas. Instituto de Astronomía, Geofísica e Ciencias Atmosféricas; Brasil
Fil: Mourão, C.. Instituto Nacional Pesquisas Espaciais. Centro Ciencia Sistema Terrestre; Brasil
Fil: Li, L.. Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique; Francia
Fil: Marengo, J.. Instituto Nacional Pesquisas Espaciais. Centro Ciencia Sistema Terrestre; Brasil
Fil: de Castro, M.. Universidad de Castilla La Mancha. Facultad de Ciencias Ambientales y Bioquímica; España
Fil: Jacob, D.. Climate Service Center 2.0; Alemania
Subject
REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELING
CLIMATE CHANGE
SOUTH AMERICA
Investigación Climatológica
Ciencias de la Tierra y relacionadas con el Medio Ambiente
CIENCIAS NATURALES Y EXACTAS
Access level
Restricted access
License
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repository
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institution
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identifier
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/4472